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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Free Cash Flow Is King
Apple is now the only Mag 7 stock that is outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
Why?
It generates more free cash flow than any other Mag 7 company while largely avoiding the AI spending binge that is draining its hyperscaler peers.
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta spent a combined $202 billion on CapEx in Q3.
That’s a 108% increase from a year ago and a staggering 446% increase from just three years ago.
The result of this massive increase in spending: Amazon ($-33.5 billion), Google (-$9.5 billion), and Meta (-$2.1 billion) all reported their biggest declines in free cash flow ever.
And while Microsoft’s free cash flow remained in positive territory, it was still down 28% from a year ago.
For years, the market rewarded companies for announcing bigger AI investments. Now, investors are beginning to ask an important question:
Where is the return on that investment?
2) Here Comes Anthropic
One of the most anticipated IPOs in history is approaching.
Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI platform, has filed to go public, likely sometime in November (under the ticker symbol $ANT).
The offering could raise $100 billion or more at a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs ever.
Anthropic was founded in January 2021, making it the fastest growing company in history (fastest ever to hit a $1 trillion market value).
During the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic generated $33.2 billion in revenue, up from $2.5 billion during the same period last year. That’s an incredible 1,206% increase.
Anthropic’s spending and financial obligations are enormous.
Operating expenses increased 344% over the last year to $34.5 billion (first 9 months of 2026).
And the company disclosed $895 billion in purchase and lease commitments related to AI compute and infrastructure, with $447 billion expected to be incurred before the end of 2030.
These obligations create significant financial exposure if demand slows, competition increases, or AI computing costs decline.
And competition is intensifying, with OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others all racing to develop more powerful and less expensive AI models.
There’s little doubt that AI is one of the most transformative technologies of our time.
But investors should remember an important distinction:
A great company and a great investment are not necessarily the same thing. Valuation matters, and so does the ability to turn rapid revenue growth into sustainable profits and free cash flow.
3) It’s the Inflation, Stupid
The American people have spoken.
The Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
What was the biggest issue driving voters?
Inflation.
According to election exit polls, nearly 9 in 10 voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote, while roughly two-thirds blamed President Trump for high prices.
And nearly 80% said inflation had caused financial hardship for their families over the past year.
Sound familiar?
In 2024, voters punished Democrats for the inflation surge under President Biden, helping return Donald Trump to the White House.
Two years later, they’re punishing Republicans for failing to deliver on the promise of lower prices.
Different parties. Same problem.
And the frustration is understandable.
Consumer prices have increased at twice the Fed’s 2% target since the beginning of 2020. Housing, health care, groceries, and energy have all become substantially more expensive.
The lesson from the last two elections couldn’t be clearer: Americans are tired of paying more for everything, and they’ll keep voting out the party in power until something changes.
It’s the inflation, stupid.
4) A Broken System
If you’re wondering why Americans are so concerned about affordability, look no further than the cost of health care.
The average annual premium for employer-sponsored family health insurance in the United States has reached a record $28,303 in 2026.
That’s up from just $5,809 in 1999.
This is an astounding 387% increase over 27 years, or roughly 6% per year.
Over that same period, overall consumer prices increased at an annualized rate of just 2.6%.
Health care has become one of the largest financial burdens facing American families.
5) The Fed Remains Behind the Curve
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% at its October 28 meeting, exactly as the market expected.
At the press conference, Kevin Warsh was asked a simple question: With inflation still well above target, the labor market stable, and another rate hike expected in December, why not just hike rates now?
He danced around the question because there was no good answer, finally admitting: “if the crux of your question is you haven’t delivered yet, you haven’t achieved price stability, you’re right about that, but we’re working on it.”
Nearly six years of inflation above target, and the Fed is still “working on it.” Meanwhile, American consumers continue to pay the price.
6) “Le Spread”
Debt doesn’t matter. Until it does.
France’s 10-year bond yield recently surged above 5%, the highest since 2002, while its borrowing cost premium over Germany (aka “Le Spread”) has reached levels last seen during the European debt crisis.
Years of reckless deficit spending are finally catching up.
7) A Few Interesting Stats…
a) The combined revenues of the Big 4 US tech companies hit a record $2.1 trillion over last 12 months (+17% YoY). That’s larger than the GDP of all but 13 countries.
b) The US National Debt has now increased by over $1.1 trillion since July 1st. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today.
c) Incredible: Amazon’s AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($161 billion) was higher than the revenue of 476 companies in the S&P 500.
d) US Jobless Claims have hit their lowest levels since 1969. The US population in 1969 was 203 million. Today it’s 349 million. If you adjust for this population increase, jobless claims have never been lower than they are today.
e) US homebuilder confidence has plunged to its lowest level since 2012. A record 43% of builders are cutting prices and 65% are offering incentives (19th straight month above 60%). The problem? Buyers simply can’t afford the homes being built.
And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!
Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
PakarPBN
A Private Blog Network (PBN) is a collection of websites that are controlled by a single individual or organization and used primarily to build backlinks to a “money site” in order to influence its ranking in search engines such as Google. The core idea behind a PBN is based on the importance of backlinks in Google’s ranking algorithm. Since Google views backlinks as signals of authority and trust, some website owners attempt to artificially create these signals through a controlled network of sites.
In a typical PBN setup, the owner acquires expired or aged domains that already have existing authority, backlinks, and history. These domains are rebuilt with new content and hosted separately, often using different IP addresses, hosting providers, themes, and ownership details to make them appear unrelated. Within the content published on these sites, links are strategically placed that point to the main website the owner wants to rank higher. By doing this, the owner attempts to pass link equity (also known as “link juice”) from the PBN sites to the target website.
The purpose of a PBN is to give the impression that the target website is naturally earning links from multiple independent sources. If done effectively, this can temporarily improve keyword rankings, increase organic visibility, and drive more traffic from search results.
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